Rian van der Merwe:

This analysis clearly shows that while the progress-making forces for moving people to Instagram Direct are relatively weak, the progress-hindering forces are extremely strong. This keeps people glued to WhatsApp, and it explains Instagram Direct’s apparent failure.

So what happened here? I think Facebook realized that they won’t be able to change people’s existing photo-sharing behavior. And that’s why they bought WhatsApp.

Good analysis, applying the Jobs to be Done concept of progress making forces to understand why bolting on a popular startup’s feature to an existing product doesn’t magically win.